Peer-reviewed Publications
Conceptual background
Abstract: While climate change has global causations and impacts, there is growing consensus on addressing the 2 ◦C challenge through local actions. However, at the local level, there is disintegrated knowledge on the following: (a) short-, mid- and long-term climate vulnerability, (b) economy and GHG structures and their future pathways, and (c) useful mitigation and adaptation undertaken elsewhere. We evaluate these gaps through a comprehensive review of scientific literature and policy approaches of urban-climate studies in the Asia-Pacific Region. Based on the research findings, we develop a collaborative research framework of an integrated climate action planning (ICLAP) model for evidence-based decision-making tool. It adopts an innovative methodology integrating knowledge and data from diverse analytics, as follows: (a) spatial: downscaling global/regional climate scenarios to forecast local climate variability (50 km × 50 km) for 2030 (SDG target) and 2050; (b) statistical: a meta-analysis of 49 five-million-plus cities to forecast economic, energy and GHG scenarios; (c) bibliometric: a systematic review of global urban climate interventions from Google Scholar that collectively aid cities on policy inputs for mid-term climate variability, GHG profiles and available solutions at their disposal. We conclude with a discussion on scientific and policy relevance of such a tool in fostering overall urban, regional and global sustainability
Sethi, M., Liu, L.-J., Ayaragarnchanakul, E., Suwa, A., Avtar, R., Surjan, A., & Mittal, S. (2022). Integrated Climate Action Planning (ICLAP) in Asia-Pacific Cities: Analytical Modelling for Collaborative Decision Making. Atmosphere, 13(2), 247. doi:10.3390/atmos13020247
Methods
Abstract In light of the growing global environmental challenges, smart cities need to serve as testing workshops or labs to smartly tackle complex cross-sectional issues like jobs, seamless mobility, safety and security, sustained growth, while responding to the impending climate change too. This necessitates for developing a smart model or tool that integrates such varied but crucial climate concerns of a city into its direct decision-making and long-term planning. In this research, we conduct a literature review to have an overview of the state-of-the-afairs on urban climate planning in Asia-Pacifc Cities covering China, Japan, India, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. This is followed by an intensive theoretical understanding on the need of having a smart tool in urban climate action planning. This includes the study of recent urban climate metrics and tools, their diferent typologies based on key purpose, method, sectoral and geographical scope, and challenges and gaps in formulating smart urban climate tools. We then introduce the conceptual framework for integrated climate action planning (ICLAP) tool that transects spatial, statistical and bibliometric methods. We establish applicability of ICLAP in case of Indian cities by discerning climate vulnerabilities, GHG trends and relevant urban climate solutions. The paper eventually culminates with major scientifc fndings and policy recommendations, essentially underscoring more intensive and wider application of ICLAP like smart urban climate tools in local decision making and national urban policies duly supported by international scientifc collaborations.
Sethi, M., & Mittal, S. (2022). Developing a smart tool for integrated climate action planning (ICLAP 2050) in Asia-Pacific Cities. Computational Urban Science 2, 45. doi.org/10.1007/s43762-022-00074-7 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s43762-022-00074-7
Global application
Abstract Urban areas account for between 71% and 76% of CO2 emissions from global final energy use and between 67–76% of global energy use. The highest emitting 100 urban areas (defined as contiguous population clusters) account for 18% of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To date there is no comprehensive study of megacities (10 million+ population) analysing their historic population, economic and emission patterns and contributions to global GHGs. A key challenge is that a majority of these megacities (33 out of 41) are located in developing countries, making it challenging to track their rapidly mounting emissions. In this research, we capitalize on recently released open-access datasets—the Global Human Settlements Database (R2019A) and the World Urbanization Prospects (2018) for analyzing megacity development and GHG trends, vis-à-vis the mitigation targets outlined in their climate action plans. We find that as leading political and economic centres in their nations, though most megacities have initiated climate action plans, the aggregate impact of megacities on global emissions is limited. Based on this evidence, we explore how rapidly growing megacities can hedgehop to effectively reduce their GHG emissions while urbanizing and developing economically.
Sethi M, Creutzig F (2023). Leaders or laggards in climate action? Assessing GHG trends and mitigation targets of global megacities. PLOS Clim2(1): e0000113. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000113
https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000113
Policy perspective
Abstract At the end of October 2021, in one of the biggest annual climate gatherings, COP26 aimed to secure global net-zero emissions by mid-century. This would be done through keeping the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, encouraging adaptation to protect communities and natural habitats, mobilising finance and accelerating actions through collaboration between governments, businesses and civil society. Notably, it intended to finalise the Paris Rulebook — detailed procedures operationalising the Paris Agreement. In the lead up, countries were asked to declare ambitious emission reductions for 2030. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, countries from the Asia Pacific face the uphill task of reducing carbon emissions while recovering economically in pursuit of national development. The region already emits more than half of the world’s greenhouse gases (GHGs) and most of the population lives in low-lying dense agglomerations. While the macroeconomic relation of trade and financial markets with climate change is thoroughly analysed, its manifestation within the urban economies needs to be better understood. Asian cities face a triple challenge of protecting people from growing climate hazards while addressing local economic development issues for improved standards of living and abatement of their national GHGs. Can these cities stand up to the global climate challenge?
Sethi, M. (2021). It’s sink or swim for Asia Pacific’s big cities in the war on climate change. East Asia Forum , 23 November 2021